Experience is a teacher that is extremely difficult to deny, even when it doesn’t accurately represent the dangers of the situation.
Machine learning can be useful for decisions. But assuming that it’s always useful would be an illusion.
Competent decision-making during crises requires decision-makers to recognize that not all crises are equal.
Not all failures are equal.
To be sustainable, politeness needs to be used wisely by decision-makers and appreciated by recipients.
Timelag sensitivity is about correctly estimating and recognizing the time it would take for certain causes to show their effects.
Presenters of ideas tend to gain more from anecdotes than the decision-makers who apply those ideas.
Randomness can generate many easily detectable patterns. Differentiating between illusory and causal patterns is essential making decisions with the right expectations.
For our consequential decisions, we sadly can’t really behave as if we’re on a tennis court.
We would all be exceptional decision makers if we could somehow observe counterfactuals. Given that we can’t, what can we do instead?